KnicksTape

The Knicks season (Journey to #3) starts in 8 days, so I’ll be spending some time previewing the season before then. I’ll get to my overall outlook on the season and some other things, but here we’ll start with just putting the roster in tiers that tries to combine expectations this season with their long term outlook. I’m mostly going to focus on the guys who’ll get burn, so unfortunately all you Nathan Knight fans out there will need to look elsewhere hard-hitting analysis, but I will touch on some of the end-of-the-bench guys that project do a lil’ something this year. Without further ado:

The (Virtually) Untouchable Tier:

• Jalen Brunson

Not much to say about Brunson, as he’s the only guy who you can unequivocally say will be apart of the Knicks future. He’s a top 10 PG on a crazy good contract and is the perfect guy to either lead a team of young guys or be a distributer for a team with bonafide superstars. I put the “virtually” as a disclaimer because – yeah – he’s probably not going to be a real superstar (which I reserve for like 7-10 guys) and if someone like Giannis ever came available we’d trade him. But if your only knock is “not Giannis”, that’s a pretty good place to be.

The Julius Randle Tier:

• Julius Randle

I promise I will start actually putting multiple guys in tiers, but Jules and Brunson are obviously a different tier than the other guys, yet I just can’t put them together. I’ll probably write a lot more about Jules since there’s so much to say, so I’ll try to summarize. Two things can be true: 1) he’s sucked in the playoffs at times plus his play style isn’t as complimentary to winning as Brunson, and 2) he’s a 2 time All-NBA player averaging 25-10 for multiple playoff teams. So yes, he’s not on the same level as Brunson since I can’t really see us being a championship team with him (and his contract), but let’s stop pretending the guys below him can do what he does on a nightly basis (yet).

The Valuable Guys:

• RJ Barrett
• Quentine Grimes
• Immanuel Quickley
• Mitchell Robinson

These are the four guys who have varying levels of potential, but also are the sort of guys teams would be willing to trade for. This doesn’t mean that IQ is necessarily better than Josh Hart, for example, but I wanted to combine both impact to the team this year and value for the future (which factors in continued development and trade value). Simply put, these four are projected to be a huge part of the team this year and are viewed around the league as valuable pieces. And that’s not just me saying it; if you followed the offseason you know that the market clearly values them above the guys in the next tier, despite sometimes impacting winning the same say.

Within this tier, I see RJ and Grimes as a step above IQ, who’s a step above Mitch. RJ and Grimes are interesting, because who you value more depends on what you’re looking for. I think a lot of Knicks fans were shocked seeing that it wasn’t RJ, but Grimes, being the main selling point for the Donovan Mitchell trade, but that’s because Danny Ainge doesn’t view RJ like most of us do. RJ’s best version of himself is a slashing forward who can develop into a top scoring option on a great team, but his worst version is a guy in the mold of Playoff Randle: a low efficiency scorer on a big contract who needs the ball in his hands, seemingly destined to average 20 for a Play In team. I tend to think he’ll develop into the former, but not everyone around the league does. On the other hand, Grimes’ best version is Mikail Bridges-eque 3-and-D wing who can also put the ball on the floor and score when he needs to, and his worst version is just a average lower paid 3-and-D guy (remember, he’s still on his rookie contract, unlike RJ, which factors in huge). The thing is, RJ’s ceiling is higher, but both good and bad versions of Grimes are valuable for a championship team. So that’s why I struggle to rank one above the other. RJ can develop into a top guy, but his worst version hurts the team, while I know Grimes will at the very least be an average complimentary 3-and-D guy.

IQ is right where he needs to be. He’s not as valuable as the guys above him, but he’s still an important piece. His defense, scoring, and role on the team means he’ll impact winning, but we aren’t as beholden to his off nights like we are with Randle, JB, and RJ. I like him as the 6th man, where he excels, but I’m not quite ready to say he can be an every night starter.

For Mitch, I went back and forth on in terms of what tier to put him in. He seemingly isn’t as valuable on the trade market, and whether it’s because of the direction of the game or his pretty volatile attitude, he’s not talked about as the future as much as RJ/Grimes/IQ are. But I couldn’t move him lower given how valuable he is to the current iteration of the Knicks. I mean, he looked like Wilt Chamberlin against the Cavs. I do this every year, but I’m begging him to learn how to at least hit a 8 footer, because him with a true offensive repertoire becomes arguably more valuable than anyone in this tier. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened, but we’re holding out hope.

The Solid Guys:

• Josh Hart
• Isaiah Hartenstein
• Donte DiVincenzo

These three are all going to get okay minutes and impact winning, but I can’t call them the “future core” of the Knicks like I can with the guys above.

Starting with Josh Hart, he was as big of a piece as anyone last year, but he’s 28 and probably is what he is. That isn’t a knock! It’s just that the guys above him are younger and have potential to become a top option (RJ), a top 3-and-D guy (Grimes), a 6th man of the year (IQ), and a DPOY (Mitch, maybe). Hart is most likely going to continue to be what he is, a great bench player who can play starter-level minutes for a solid playoff team, and that’s OK.

Hartenstein is like the definitional player for this spot: a solid rotation piece. He won’t be as good as Josh Hart, but he’ll spell Mitch, and do like one thing a game where you’re like “damn, I didn’t know he could do that.”

DDV is interesting because obviously he hasn’t played with us so this is all projection. Maybe he could really develop into a do-everything guard like Hart, but younger with more potential. Or maybe he’s just a guy who averages an efficient 9-5-3. I’m OK with both outcomes! I loved the pick up, since he’s at the very least a fine backup guard, but still might have some untapped potential in a bigger role. Also, I don’t think it should be ignored he’s won a championship and has the only deep playoff experience besides JB. So who knows, maybe he enters the tier above, but for now I got him starting here.

The Other Guys (who I still like):

• Miles McBride
• Jericho Sims

Out of all the deeper bench guys, these are two I think have some promise. It’s important to remember that every teams’ fanbase has a couple guys they swear would be really good in bigger roles, so let’s couch our expectations. But in all honestly I think these guys can help around the fringes this year.

Miles McBride actually had some pretty good reps in the playoffs, but I’ve been fooled by the guy coming in against a defense who didn’t game plan for him and hitting a few shots before. His defense is obviously his selling point, and that’s the sort of thing that gets him on the floor. I think he’ll be a guy we’ll remember fondly in 10 years for tough defense, but that’s probably it. Which, by the way, is perfectly fine for a second round pick so that’s why he’s mentioned. The problem is that while he’s listed as the 3rd PG, we all know we’re more likely to run guys like RJ or Randle as the main ball handler before we get to him.

Jericho Sims I think is more fun than good, but that’s fine. He’s so athletic and I would love to see him used in more PnR purely for the highlight possibility. He’s also one of only 3 big men on the team, so he’ll probably get some run when we don’t do the whole Julius at Center thing. The problem is his offensive game makes Mitch look like Hakeem, so unless that develops he’s not going become a true long term rotation guy. In the meantime though, he’ll rebound and be a lot of fun in the open court, so that’s cool.

The “Plotting His Head Coach’s Assassination” Tier:

• Evan Fournier

This guy does NOT want to be here.